A look into the 24-hour Tropical Cyclone Formation Outlook of PAGASA. (Screengrab from DOST-PAGASA)
QUEZON CITY, (PIA) – Assistant Weather Services Chief Ana Liza Solis of the Climate Monitoring and Prediction Section (CLIMPS) of PAGASA reported that two (2) tropical cyclones at most are likely to enter the Philippine Area of Responsibility (PAR) for the remainder of 2024.
“Nandiyan pa rin po ‘yung banta ng maraming ulan, mataas na tsansa ng ulan na posibleng mauwi sa pagbabaha, landslides, at kung magkaroon pa rin po tayo ng mga bagyo na posibleng makapagbigay ng mapaminsala, malakas na hangin, ‘yun pa rin po ang kailangan nating pag-ingatan at paghandaan,” said Solis during the 178th Climate Forum of the state weather bureau.
(The threat of heavy rainfall, chances of rain that may lead to flooding, landslides, and if we experience typhoons that will generate damaging, strong winds, that is what we have to prepare for.)
According to the climate outlook of PAGASA, a total of 2 to 8 tropical cyclones are likely to develop or enter the PAR in the next six (6) months on the average, particularly from December 2024 to May 2025.
In terms of rainfall, the probability of above-normal conditions or greater than 120 percent chance of rain in most parts of the country is high during the said period.
Metro Manila, in particular, is projected to have a high probability of rainy weather conditions from December 2024 to February 2025 and this will lessen from March to May 2025.
Meanwhile, Solis highlighted that the La Niña alert still persists with a 57 percent chance of emerging from October to November 2024 and may continue until the first quarter of 2025 from January to March.
However, PAGASA noted that the country may still experience a short-lived La Niña phenomenon which is likely to develop between November and December 2024 to January 2025.
“Despite the looming La Niña developing in the Tropical Pacific, we will still be experiencing La Niña like conditions na kung saan mas nagdo-dominate ang epekto ng pag-init ng temperatura ng dagat dito sa pasipiko na malapit sa ating karagatan sa Pilipinas,” Solis explained.
(Despite the looming La Niña developing in the Tropical Pacific, we will still be experiencing La Niña like conditions wherein the effect of the warmer sea temperatures in the Pacific near our seas is dominating.)
Warm ocean water is one of the key ingredients for the tropical cyclone formation and this explains the underlying reason behind the frequent occurrence of rainfall events in the country.
The long period of El Niño that was experienced by the Philippines is one of the primary contributing factors to the La Niña like conditions at present.
Meanwhile, the state weather bureau also warned against the surges in cold temperatures brought about by the northeast monsoon or Amihan, especially from January to February 2025. (JMP/PIA-NCR)
