MANILA, (PIA) — Voters should view pre-election surveys as strategic tools for candidates rather than definitive predictors of election outcomes, political analyst Professor Dr. Froilan Calilung warned Monday.
Speaking on the People’s Television “Hatol ng Bayan 2025” program, Calilung emphasized that while survey accuracy is generally commendable, the upcoming senatorial elections present unique dynamics that could challenge traditional polling expectations.
“This election is quite different,” Calilung said, citing recent political developments including impeachment proceedings and the arrest of a former president that could significantly impact voter sentiment.
The political analyst suggested that while the top eight senatorial candidates appear relatively stable, the real competition will likely be for positions between the 7th and 12th spots, with candidates ranked 13 to 18 still having a potential pathway to victory.
Calilung also cautioned against the “winnability effect” where voters might abandon promising candidates simply because they do not appear prominent in pre-election surveys.
“It’s important to maintain your original plan,” he advised. “Voters should focus on a candidate’s platform, issues, and qualifications rather than survey rankings.”
Referencing historical data from the 2022 elections, Calilung noted that major survey companies demonstrated remarkable accuracy within a plus or minus 5% margin of error.
However, he stressed that surveys have limitations. “These polls don’t capture the complete complexity of candidate support across different voter segments,” he explained.
The analyst encouraged voters to examine candidates’ platforms critically, consider personal policy concerns, avoid being swayed solely by survey rankings, and maintain independent voting decisions. (JCO/PIA-NCR)
